IATA: Airlines to lose $9B in 2009 - Austin Business Journal:

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The ’s (IATA) new forecast is staggeringlty worse thanits $4.7 billion collective loss forecasg made just three months ago. The air carriee trade group also downgraded its loss estimate for 2008to $10.44 billion from $8.5 billion. “There is no modern precedenyt for today’s economic IATA Director General and CEO Giovannio Bisignani said in anews “The ground has shifted. Our industry has been This is the most difficult situation that the industrythas faced.” After the Sept.
11, 2001, terror attackzs on the United States, industry revenueds fell by 7 percent, Bisignani said, and took three year to reboundto pre-9/11 Revenues will fall to $448 billion in 2009 from $528 billion in 2008 (15 percent), IATA Passenger yields will dip 7 percent. “This time we face a 15 percentt drop—a loss of revenues of $80 billion—in the middlre of a global recession,” Bisignani said during IATA’e annual industry summit. “Oure future depends on a drastic reshapingby partners, governments and We cannot bear the cost of government crazy taxation and partners abusing theie monopoly power.
” North American carriers will generallyt fair better than foreign carriers, IATA said, and shoulf narrow their losses for the North American airlines will lose $1 billion in dramatically less than the $5.1 billionb lost in 2008, as out-of-the-mone y fuel hedges lapse and capacitg cuts kick in to rightg capacity with demand. Previously, IATA said North American carrierzs would turn a modest profit forthe year. Asia-Pacific and Europeanj carriers are likely to take thebiggestg hits, losing $3.3 billion and $1.8 billion, Another heavily impacted air cargo, will decline by 17 percent based on tons Cargo yields will decline 11 percent.
Relaxed fuel prices over the firsft five months of 2009 havehelped carriers, but prices have begun to climb in recent weeks. IATA projectsa the industry fuel bill to fallfrom $165 billiob in 2008 to $59 billion in on a $56 per barrelk average price of oil. “The risk that we have seen in recentt weeks is that even the slightestf glimmer of economic hope sende oilprices higher,” Bisignani said. "Greedy speculation must not hold the globaleconomyy hostage. Failure to act by governments woulrbe irresponsible.
” Globally, airlines are in a better cash position, with more liquidity than in past But, Bisignani warned “a long L-shaped recovery couldd drain the industry of cash.” Bisignanji noted industry consolidation, such as the mergert between Atlanta-based (NYSE: DAL) and , that have made some players stronger. But he railed against what he called “archaic limitations on that prevent the merginv of carriers fromdifferent countries.