Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Pacific Business News (Honolulu):

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high since double-di recessions are rare and the U.S. economyh grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicted that the currentg economic downturn will end around Septembeer but that the unemployment rate will remaih high through the firstg half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does after a Regalia said.
Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becausre of thefederal government’s huge budget deficits and the massivee amount of dollars pumped into the economy by the , he If this stimulus is not unwound once the economy begina to recover, higher interest rates coulcd choke off improvement in the housing markeg and business investment, he said. “The economuy has got to be running on its own by the middlee ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almost every major inflationarty periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavgydebt levels, he noted. The chancesw of a double-dip recessiohn will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairmahn of theFederal Reserve, Regalia said.
If President Obama appointa hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that wouldc signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longef time, he said. A coalescingb of the Fed and the Obamz administrationis “not something the marketsa want to see,” Regalia said. Obama has declinede to say whether he will reappoint whose term endsin February. more than half of small business owners expecrt the recession to last at least anothertwo years, according to a survet of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expectg their own business to grow in the next12 months.
“Smalol business owners are bullish on theid own abilities but bearisj on the factorsthey can’t control,” said Camerobn Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Even in the gloomiest there are opportunitiesto seize.” A separate surveh of small business owner by found that 57 percent thought the economuy was getting worse, while 26 percent thoughty the economy was improving. More than half plannee to decrease spending on business development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ s Web site.